My assertion;
In 20-30 years time there could be a violent revolution held by the common people, targeted towards government and private industry. I expect this revolution to start in a particular city that has been afforded a high standard of living for two or more generations, and I expect the revolution to spread to neighbouring cites, and finally; globally.
My argument;
In modern civilisation, particularly in democratic capitalist societies, there has been an increasing number of people who are able to afford a high standard of living. This high standard of living is largely based upon resources which are finite, and human capital, which is also finite.
America, Britain, Europe, and Australia have enjoyed a high standard of living for several generations, and have come to depend on luxurious lifestyles - which can be defined as; anything above basic subsistence. Industrialisation and constitutional democracy have kept productivity rising, and as a result; individual persons consume more goods and services - which keeps productivity moving upwards because people need wages - and businesses offer wages.
As China, India, and Russia, and an increasing range of developing countries evolve to democratic political systems with capitalistic economies, they will develop real wages for their workers; ending their viability as cheap human capital - and more importantly, raising demand for the same finite resources that developed countries also demand.
Thus, developed countries will have to pay more for natural resources and human capital in order to sustain their current lifestyle, which increasingly becomes dearer due to the situation mentioned above. This is happening now, and it is happening exponentially.
Compounding this modern conundrum is the fact that; the goods and services we depend upon are generally the type that condition people to live in a way that diminishes the skills and abilities required for subsistence.
Nowhere in history have enormous populations been so profoundly separated from basic subsistence, as we are now. And, as the characteristics of subsistence lifestyles in a society lowers, it's fear of losing goods and services rises because those goods and services are now psychologically viewed as critical for survival.
So we have a situation where; consumers think they need 'product X' in order to survive, but 'product X' comes from a short supply of finite resources so it's price is shockingly high - so high that consumers become volatile. Consumer are likely to squander their liberties working extra hours in order to afford to purchase 'product X', or will perhaps resort to crime, or settle for demoralising work and/or work conditions.
There's a clear pattern that can be deduced from the above mentioned factors, and I would like to put forth a hypothetical scenario for your consideration based on those factors.
Imagine if you will....
2011 AD
Oil prices continue to sky-rocket upwards due to China and India placing enormous demand upon it. They have evolved their political system to allow an economy that pays good wages, which effectively raises the price of human capital - ending the availability of cheap labour and manufacturing for western society.
2013 AD
The US dollar crashes, Iran is now trading oil in Euros and other countries follow suit, because they're frightened that they may absorb the sting of the falling US dollar.
Meanwhile, households in western society are paying historically high prices for electricity, oil, gas, food and clothing. These people are becoming increasingly malcontent as prices rise, but politicians are powerless to stop the price hike, because they hitherto have been relying on the finite resources such as oil and cheap human capital to sustain their economies, whilst neglecting education and infrastructure - there's no back up plan.
2019 AD
The people become increasingly frustrated by the lack of support from their governments. Jobs become scarce, private businesses are liquidating because they have no access to financial capital, credit, or resources.
2022 AD
Developing countries keep the pressure of demand up (and the availability of supply down), as they become accustomed to more luxurious lifestyles - they are living wealthier than ever before, and there's no plan to go back, they're hooked, just like western society is.
2025 AD - 2028 AD
In western society, recessions lead to depressions, and the ensuing poverty creates ghettos and slums that are packed with people who have no subsistence skills - they're cold, frightened and becoming increasingly agitated. There are those who still live in moderately comfortable conditions; they are the 'haves', who had enough savings to survive the financial disasters.
December 24th, 2029 AD
On a cold night in down-town Los Angeles, the citizens living in ghetto number #9 are watching CBS news on an old television from within their abandoned squat, the news reports a story of a woman who has been shot down and killed by military police as she tried to rob a wealthy Beverly Hills home. The word is spread amongst the ghetto about a woman was killed whilst trying to get food for her children, who are now orphans, and the citizens of Ghetto #9 react... violently.
They storm the heavily fortified Beverly Hills suburbs in mobs, fuelled by the anger and misery that has kept them living like rats for years - when they were once voting citizens who went to college and paid their taxes in order to achieve the American dream. Their hatred is that of pure white rage, and their viciousness is nothing short of primal.
A battle ensues between the citizens and the military police who are protecting the affluent suburbs, and more citizens from other ghettos join the fight, they've witnessed the angry mobs and are keen to express their frustration alongside their fellow citizens. Disastrously, the situation is reported live via news satellite across the globe...
In a down-town industrial park, inside an old factory that has long been deserted, a group of Australian people calling themselves the "Freedom Fighters" are holding one of their regularly held political party meetings. A young women rushes in and tells them the news "there's a rebellion in California!". The people leave the building to watch the community television (the only one available in the entire suburb) and as they exit the building they notice large numbers of people running and shouting, as if they were delirious with happiness. Except, they're not happy, their shouts are actually war cries - and they're taking a war to the doorstep of Parliament house, the office of the Prime Minister.
Similar occurrences break out in London, New York, Paris and Barcelona, whilst other nations rapidly follow suit.
December 25th, 2029 AD
Martial Law is declared in most countries. The citizens are commandeering military equipment and raiding all the wealthy suburbs and homes. The war of the citizens is disorganised, frantic and bloody. And nobody stops for christmas...
January 1st, 2030 AD
Presidents, Senators and Aristocrats hide out in nuclear bunkers, but the wealthy 'haves' and their affiliates aren't so lucky. They are publicly and summarily executed by the mobs of angry citizens. The year is 2030, and the bodies are piling up.
Whilst the citizens scramble for food, a new age is dawning... an age where mankind realises that he cannot eat Ipods or Nike Shoes or Rayban sunglasses or countless other so-called necessities in order to survive... an age where once again mother nature is the provider and the caretaker, and he returns to her; like a sobbing child who became lost at the supermarket.
