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Author Topic: The revolution - is it coming?  (Read 12107 times)

Offline Matt Emery

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The revolution - is it coming?
« on: March 17, 2008, 08:31:49 AM »
My assertion;
In 20-30 years time there could be a violent revolution held by the common people, targeted towards government and private industry.  I expect this revolution to start in a particular city that has been afforded a high standard of living for two or more generations, and I expect the revolution to spread to neighbouring cites, and finally; globally.

My argument;
In modern civilisation, particularly in democratic capitalist societies, there has been an increasing number of people who are able to afford a high standard of living.  This high standard of living is largely based upon resources which are finite, and human capital, which is also finite.

America, Britain, Europe, and Australia have enjoyed a high standard of living for several generations, and have come to depend on luxurious lifestyles - which can be defined as; anything above basic subsistence.  Industrialisation and constitutional democracy have kept productivity rising, and as a result; individual persons consume more goods and services - which keeps productivity moving upwards because people need wages - and businesses offer wages.

As China, India, and Russia, and an increasing range of developing countries evolve to democratic political systems with capitalistic economies, they will develop real wages for their workers; ending their viability as cheap human capital - and more importantly, raising demand for the same finite resources that developed countries also demand.

Thus, developed countries will have to pay more for natural resources and human capital in order to sustain their current lifestyle, which increasingly becomes dearer due to the situation mentioned above.  This is happening now, and it is happening exponentially.

Compounding this modern conundrum is the fact that; the goods and services we depend upon are generally the type that condition people to live in a way that diminishes the skills and abilities required for subsistence.

Nowhere in history have enormous populations been so profoundly separated from basic subsistence, as we are now.  And, as the characteristics of subsistence lifestyles in a society lowers, it's fear of losing goods and services rises because those goods and services are now psychologically viewed as critical for survival.

So we have a situation where; consumers think they need 'product X' in order to survive, but 'product X' comes from a short supply of finite resources so it's price is shockingly high - so high that consumers become volatile.  Consumer are likely to squander their liberties working extra hours in order to afford to purchase 'product X', or will perhaps resort to crime, or settle for demoralising work and/or work conditions.

There's a clear pattern that can be deduced from the above mentioned factors, and I would like to put forth a hypothetical scenario for your consideration based on those factors.

Imagine if you will....
2011 AD
Oil prices continue to sky-rocket upwards due to China and India placing enormous demand upon it.   They have evolved their political system to allow an economy that pays good wages, which effectively raises the price of human capital - ending the availability of cheap labour and manufacturing for western society.

2013 AD
The US dollar crashes, Iran is now trading oil in Euros and other countries follow suit, because they're frightened that they may absorb the sting of the falling US dollar.

Meanwhile, households in western society are paying historically high prices for electricity, oil, gas, food and clothing.  These people are becoming increasingly malcontent as prices rise, but politicians are powerless to stop the price hike, because they hitherto have been relying on the finite resources such as oil and cheap human capital to sustain their economies, whilst neglecting education and infrastructure - there's no back up plan.

2019 AD
The people become increasingly frustrated by the lack of support from their governments.  Jobs become scarce,  private businesses are liquidating because they have no access to financial capital, credit, or resources.

2022 AD
Developing countries keep the pressure of demand up (and the availability of supply down), as they become accustomed to more luxurious lifestyles - they are living wealthier than ever before, and there's no plan to go back, they're hooked, just like western society is.

2025 AD - 2028 AD
In western society, recessions lead to depressions, and the ensuing poverty creates ghettos and slums that are packed with people who have no subsistence skills - they're cold, frightened and becoming increasingly agitated.  There are those who still live in moderately comfortable conditions; they are the 'haves', who had enough savings to survive the financial disasters.

December 24th, 2029 AD
On a cold night in down-town Los Angeles, the citizens living in ghetto number #9 are watching CBS news on an old television from within their abandoned squat, the news reports a story of a woman who has been shot down and killed by military police as she tried to rob a wealthy Beverly Hills home.  The word is spread amongst the ghetto about a woman was killed whilst trying to get food for her children, who are now orphans, and the citizens of Ghetto #9 react... violently.

They storm the heavily fortified Beverly Hills suburbs in mobs, fuelled by the anger and misery that has kept them living like rats for years - when they were once voting citizens who went to college and paid their taxes in order to achieve the American dream.  Their hatred is that of pure white rage, and their viciousness is nothing short of primal.

A battle ensues between the citizens and the military police who are protecting the affluent suburbs, and more citizens from other ghettos join the fight, they've witnessed the angry mobs and are keen to express their frustration alongside their fellow citizens.  Disastrously, the situation is reported live via news satellite across the globe...

In a down-town industrial park, inside an old factory that has long been deserted, a group of Australian people calling themselves the "Freedom Fighters" are holding one of their regularly held political party meetings.   A young women rushes in and tells them the news "there's a rebellion in California!".  The people leave the building to watch the community television (the only one available in the entire suburb) and as they exit the building they notice large numbers of people running and shouting, as if they were delirious with happiness.  Except, they're not happy, their shouts are actually war cries - and they're taking a war to the doorstep of Parliament house, the office of the Prime Minister.

Similar occurrences break out in London, New York, Paris and Barcelona, whilst other nations rapidly follow suit.

December 25th, 2029 AD
Martial Law is declared in most countries.  The citizens are commandeering military equipment and raiding all the wealthy suburbs and homes.  The war of the citizens is disorganised, frantic and bloody.  And nobody stops for christmas...

January 1st, 2030 AD
Presidents, Senators and Aristocrats hide out in nuclear bunkers, but the wealthy 'haves' and their affiliates aren't so lucky.  They are publicly and summarily executed by the mobs of angry citizens.  The year is 2030, and the bodies are piling up.

Whilst the citizens scramble for food, a new age is dawning... an age where mankind realises that he cannot eat Ipods or Nike Shoes or Rayban sunglasses or countless other so-called necessities in order to survive... an age where once again mother nature is the provider and the caretaker, and he returns to her; like a sobbing child who became lost at the supermarket.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2008, 08:41:12 AM by Matt Emery »
"Be true to your biology"

Offline England Tiger

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2008, 03:22:40 PM »
It's not so far fetched.
Coming from a slightly different angle. I truly fear for the future of my country (England). We have been heading 'to the dogs' for years now, and the government seem either clueless or powerless to do anything much about it. They fool themselves with rafts of targets that things are getting better, but we all know deep down and from experience that they are not. All that is getting better is ability to play the game so that the figures look like the targets are being hit - crime, education, immigration, anti social behaviour, health service, you name it. Increasing numbers of Brits are leaving, or wanting to leave, in order to escape - typically the people the country needs.
Something has to change. Hopefully before the type of scenario you describe becomes reality.

Offline Phanatic

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2008, 03:48:37 PM »
Definitely. The gap between rich and poor has been growing since the early 90s,  and I think some people are going to be very, very pissed off when driving a car becomes a luxury. Buying power decreases and the government can't afford to give welfare to the many poor, also the hospitals find themselves running out of money treating the people who become sick (due to poverty).

I can see a time when thieves will break into mansions to get food for themselves and their children. I can see a situation where everyone domesticates animals, grows potatoes (they'll grow in poor soil and you can harvest many times a year) fishes, and eats insects and edible plants (returning full-scale to hunting and gathering would be impossible with the population we have now). Maybe we'd see the return of blacksmiths, melting down car bodies to make farming tools....

Offline Seeker

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2008, 06:20:19 AM »
Terrifyingly enough I have thought about this possibility also. You portrayed the story well Matt and I pictured it in my head as I read and it gave me a slight chill a few times. I know a conspiracy theory nut who has hoarded up stocks and prepared his own small scale farm just for this eventuality and as appalling as it sounds, he actually does want it to happen just so he can say "I told you so" to everyone. To me it's sickening to want this kind of thing to happen. I just hope it isn't something that anybody here secretly wishes for too.

Back to the hypothetical. With the growing interest in small scale farms and backyard garden beds, also the organic produce groups sprouting up around the various countries (I know it's huge in southwest England now and growing very fast here in Australia also) I think their would be a small but strong section of society who would not only survive this occurrence but would flourish and hopefully go on to spread the knowledge and help people to adapt back to the original ways we had to live those thousands of years ago. I also thing the holocaust style death rates would make the planet much more viable again - which is unfortunate when you realise just how over populated we are for this kind of thing to have a serious benefit for the environment.

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2008, 05:09:18 AM »
I'm glad the story touched a nerve with some people.  I couldn't sleep after writing it... it seemed so vivid.

The doomsday story is a tragic one indeed, but there are many things that mankind can do to avoid such a fate.  And i'd love to kick off a growing list of possible solutions;

  • The letting go of the concept of oil.... it doesn't work.
  • The decentralisation of urban sprawl and city business districts.
  • The implementation of intelligently flexible political systems i.e. periodic referendums, critical polling, diligent export/import policies, etc.
  • Increased dedication to recycling and agricultural sustainability.
  • The prioritisation of biologically satisfying traits i.e. breeding, kinship, community, rest, healthy work, and lots of play.

Care to add a few?

PS One more; accountability for corporations  >:(
"Be true to your biology"

Offline Seeker

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2008, 02:01:20 PM »
Some good ideas there Matt.

With regard to the oil issue, unfortunately we apparently can't help ourselves and are too lazy to want to develop real viable alternatives. Scientists just recently figured out they could get oil out of coal so the planet might have sufficient oil for another 600 years yet. Given the pollution it causes I think we are cutting our own throats. The only way this new discovery could be a good thing is if we use it as a reprieve while we develop new green alternatives. I just don't see us doing that though, I think we'll use it as a false sense of security and think we are cool again with oil since we have a whole lot more of it again.

Offline Phanatic

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2008, 04:04:16 PM »
I can't see anyone changing from oil any time soon. Although brazil did do this a while ago, converted their cars to run on ethanol.

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2008, 03:43:05 AM »
I just stumbled upon a film that has just been released which seems to echo what we're talking about in this thread.  I haven't watched it yet, so I can't say if it's any good or not.

It is being distributed on the Internet for free.

Get it here: http://www.everygoodthingtorust.com/watch.php

Back story and Synopsis:
Inexplicable disorder. Televisions off-air.  Humans ravaging each other for scraps of food and weapons.  This is the turn that life takes for three friends trying to find their place in post-9-11 America.  In a dark, eerie portrait of societal meltdown,  EVERY GOOD THING to RUST questions the loyalties of friendship and challenges any illusions of safety and order.  Quiet, sincere, and beautifully shot, this debut feature
from director John W. Yost is a stirring and meditative outlook on the degeneration of American culture.

EVERY GOOD THING to RUST was made for $4,000 with a crew of five. It is being distributed on the Internet for free. John W. Yost wants to share his film, is open to feedback, and is already writing his next project.

...... end ........
"Be true to your biology"

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2008, 03:55:49 AM »
It's not so far fetched.
Coming from a slightly different angle. I truly fear for the future of my country (England). We have been heading 'to the dogs' for years now, and the government seem either clueless or powerless to do anything much about it. They fool themselves with rafts of targets that things are getting better, but we all know deep down and from experience that they are not. All that is getting better is ability to play the game so that the figures look like the targets are being hit - crime, education, immigration, anti social behaviour, health service, you name it. Increasing numbers of Brits are leaving, or wanting to leave, in order to escape - typically the people the country needs.

@England Tiger, this may interest you;

Enoch Powell
Powell prophesied that mass migration would lead to segregation and communal violence, but the incendiary nature of his language dominated the headlines. His core argument was largely ignored.  He is best remembered for his controversial 1968 "Rivers of Blood" speech in opposition to British Commonwealth immigration to Britain; this resulted in him being swiftly removed from the Shadow Cabinet.

On Saturday April 20, 1968 he made a controversial speech in Birmingham, in which he warned his audience of what he believed would be the consequences of continued unchecked immigration from the Commonwealth to Britain.

"Here is a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman, who in broad daylight in my own town says to me, his Member of Parliament, that the country will not be worth living in for his children. I simply do not have the right to shrug my shoulders and think about something else. What he is saying, thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking – not throughout Great Britain, perhaps, but in the areas that are already undergoing the total transformation to which there is no parallel in a thousand years of English history"

More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enoch_Powell
"Be true to your biology"

Offline England Tiger

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2008, 02:30:23 PM »
Thanks Matt.
Funny, I recently bought a book with Enoch Powell's speeches in it as I wanted to understand a bit more about where he was coming from, what he did actually say, etc. I sense his core message was prophetic (if that's a word?!).  I'm good at buying books, but not so good at getting round to reading them all  :) Bit like my exercising and eating habits used to be until 5 weeks ago (sites like this help maintain the motivation and provide further ideas - thanks).
Anyway, it amazes me how tolerant we English are. Perhaps it's at least partly that the PC brigade are everywhere so you hardly dare utter a word against anything these days without being frowned on. Then there's the 'human rights' effect, the EU, etc etc. The World's going mad. But there will no doubt come a  tipping point when 'the Englishman' will say enough is enough - if there's enough of a voice left by then?! The Government has sold our country down the river without ever consulting (EU, immigration, pandering to all sorts of minorities, etc) to a state where we've virtually lost our identity. Yes, we could always vote out the Government of the day at the next election (which will probably happen) but there's no real alternative on offer anyway
Hey ho, stiff upper lip and all that. 

Offline Phanatic

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2008, 03:42:48 PM »
From what I hear, the muslims moved to England and expect everything to be changed to suit them. And it seems the English government has been extremely complicit.

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2008, 08:19:40 PM »
@ English Tiger
It seems to be the way of the world... there are similar immigration/integration problems in Australia.  It's a difficult issue - one that's probably been a challenge for society since the dawn of tribalism.

Samuel P. Huntington (political scientist) proposed a theory which he called the "Clash of Civilisations"; asserting that people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post Cold War world.

He writes:
"It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future."

More info here: http://history.club.fatih.edu.tr/103%20Huntington%20Clash%20of%20Civilizations%20full%20text.htm

Perhaps, you could write to your local representative, and politely enquire as to what it is he/she is doing about the contentment of their citizens.  I imagine it could arouse an interesting response  ;)
"Be true to your biology"

Offline takujohn

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2008, 05:49:34 PM »
Hey Matt---Do you really think we have to wait 20 or 30 years for this to happen? It is coming, and coming fast, at least here in the U.S.   Rev John

Offline Phanatic

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2008, 08:00:16 PM »

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2008, 08:27:53 PM »
Hey Matt---Do you really think we have to wait 20 or 30 years for this to happen? It is coming, and coming fast, at least here in the U.S.   Rev John

I think that the crisis' facing humanity is gaining inertia, and unfortunately; people are too distracted by the lure of consumerism to take any notice.  But ironically, I think that consumerism itself could provide the wake up call i.e. when people can't afford to feed their families, they may start to read the 'writing on the wall' and curb the possibility of population crashes.

Western culture is changing, there is far more awareness of environmental issues than there were 10 years ago, and perhaps in another 10 years we will mature even further to the point where we realise that consumerism is a zero sum game.  Another change is that people are becoming more 'biocentric' - realising that they are part of a biospheric system - this is a massive shift in thinking.

The ancient aboriginals knew that they needed to cooperate with the earth in order to survive, and until we learn that lesson; we are digging a grave.

I sincerely hope that our generations can step up to the plate and usher through an age of sanity.
"Be true to your biology"

Offline Phanatic

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2008, 10:21:46 PM »
Hey Matt---Do you really think we have to wait 20 or 30 years for this to happen? It is coming, and coming fast, at least here in the U.S.   Rev John
I think that the crisis' facing humanity is gaining inertia, and unfortunately; people are too distracted by the lure of consumerism to take any notice.  But ironically, I think that consumerism itself could provide the wake up call i.e. when people can't afford to feed their families, they may start to read the 'writing on the wall' and curb the possibility of population crashes.

That's exactly what I think. People are going to start waking up when they can't afford to drive to work. When the cost of foods increases so much that people start going hungry. As British intel puts it, we are "4 meals away from anarchy"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article492642.ece

On an unrelated note, where ya been Matt?

Offline Matt Emery

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Re: The revolution - is it coming?
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2008, 10:33:42 PM »
On an unrelated note, where ya been Matt?

Mate, i've been working on some new ideas, and studying Neurobiology - particularly in relation to human behaviour.  I am also preparing a dossier for the Australian 20/20 summit.

I am putting together a 'social business' framework, which (if successful) could help people massively by improving their quality of life... i'll go into further details a bit later  ;)
"Be true to your biology"